Coronavirus crowd study: German researchers find ‘glimmers of hope’ after inviting thousands to indoor concert in Leipzig
In one scenario modeled by the scientists, the infection risk for participants and their contacts was around 70 times lower when health and safety instructions were followed, compared with what it could have been under pre-pandemic behavior.
“A concert or handball game with a strictly enforced safety protocol is safer than the participation in a big wedding,” said Michael Gekle, the dean of the medical department at the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, who was involved in the research.
The scientists’ conclusions are based on an experiment that drew around 1,400 people to an indoor concert simulation in August, hosted in one of the country’s largest venues in the eastern German city of Leipzig.
The researchers from the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, a public institution, used tracking devices to gather data on the movements and behavior of participants, all of whom had to test negative for the virus to be allowed to participate. Over the following two months, the data gathered during the day-long experiment in August was fed into a computer simulation to estimate the hypothetical spread of the coronavirus for varying safety protocols and infection rates.
Finding a balance between economic incentives to fill a venue as much as possible and safety constraints to limit the risks was the main goal of the experiment that looked at three scenarios.
In the first, participants — while still wearing masks — pretended that the pandemic did not exist, allowing the researchers to create a detailed computer simulation of a concert with no social distancing and with an auditorium at full capacity.
In the second scenario, organizers imposed light social distancing rules and reduced the number of participants. This scenario, the researchers said Thursday, would provide sufficient safety to hold indoor events up to an infection rate of 50 new cases per 100,000 people within a week. Germany deems regions that cross this threshold as risk areas.
Events could still be held with infection levels above that rate, the researchers found, but only if organizers were to follow stringent distancing, as modeled in a third scenario.
In all three scenarios, participants had assigned seats.
The researchers cautioned that participants’ safety largely depends on face masks and on indoor ventilation systems, which were both found to play a critical role in preventing infections.
Germany already approved a $580 million program last month to improve ventilation systems in museums, theaters and other spaces. As long as no effective vaccine has been widely distributed more funding for ventilation will be needed, said Stefan Moritz, who headed the experiment. “This pandemic won’t be over in a few months,” he said.
In the lead-up to the concert, the prospect of the experiment sparked hate mail and accusations that it would become a superspreader event, but the researchers said Thursday that the concert had resulted in no known infections.
The release of their findings Thursday came at a pivotal time in Germany, and one day after Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a month-long partial national lockdown this
Omkar Marathe, MD, of The Oncology Institute of Hope and Innovation Selected for 40 Under 40 in Cancer Award
Award recognizes the contributions made by the nation’s most promising oncology professionals under the age of 40
The Oncology Institute of Hope and Innovation (TOI) is proud to announce that Omkar Marathe, MD, a TOI physician, has received the “40 Under 40 in Cancer” award.
The 40 Under 40 in Cancer award celebrates the contributions of emerging leaders in cancer care under the age of 40. The award’s sponsors include the Association for Value-Based Cancer Care.
Dr. Marathe treats patients with cancer and blood disorders in the greater Long Beach Area and has received a teaching award for his work with the St. Mary’s Internal Medicine residency program. He has conducted research and published papers in various disciplines of oncology including ocular melanoma and HER2+ breast cancer and was recently named Director for TOI’s highly esteemed clinical trials program. Dr. Marathe is fluent in English, Spanish, Marathi, and conversational Hindi.
Brad Hively, TOI’s CEO, commented: “All of us at The Oncology Institute are incredibly proud of our colleague Dr. Marathe for being selected for this award. He represents what’s best about our company: a dedicated and talented clinician providing innovative and compassionate cancer care to our patients.”
About The Oncology Institute of Hope and Innovation
Founded in 2007, The Oncology Institute of Hope and Innovation (TOI) is one of the largest community oncology practices in the US as well as our nation’s leading value-based oncology services platform. TOI employs 75 physicians and mid-level practitioners in 42 clinic locations, with more than 500 total employees helping to offer leading-edge, evidence-based cancer care to a population of more than 1.5 million patients. TOI brings comprehensive, integrated cancer care into community settings, including clinical trials, palliative care programs, stem cell transplants, transfusions, and other care delivery models traditionally associated with the most advanced tertiary care settings. For more information visit www.theoncologyinstitute.com.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201021005253/en/
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Bars across Texas reopened their doors following Gov. Greg Abbott’s Oct. 7 order allowing individual counties to determine if it’s safe.
However, Harris County is still not allowing bars that don’t serve food to reopen, including some in northwest Harris County. The county still has a high degree of community spread of the virus, county officials said.… Read More
D.C. gyms and fitness studios have been faced with a daunting realization: winter is coming. See how they are making changes, building workout pods, opening new facilities and also closing for good due to the coronavirus pandemic.
When the coronavirus pandemic swept across North America in March, it closed schools, businesses, restaurants and fitness centers, forcing many people to work from home and limit their mixing in society.
There was one silver lining: the weather, while brisk and blustery some of the time, was generally good, and getting better. It made exercising outside tolerable, and even appealing most days.
While many people continued their fitness programs over the last seven months with Zoom classes or dripping sweat on a treadmill or Peloton bike indoors, many moved outside.
Lured by good weather in the spring and fall, some people even survived the sultriest days by working out early in the morning or late in the evening.
But now, winter is coming.
What will fitness studios and gyms, many of which have moved workouts outside, do at the end of October as days get shorter and frigid mornings make it harder for clients to peel back the blankets and get out of bed?
For the owners of four D.C. independent fitness studios, there are four distinct choices: invest in a new studio that supports a hybrid indoor/outdoor workout; encourage athletes to come back indoors while working out in masks and maintaining their distance; build individual workout “pods” separated by a frame and plastic sheeting; or, sadly, decide to shut down for good.
For Chris and Alex Perrin, the husband and wife team who own Cut Seven, a facility that offers an intense, boot-camp style workout in Logan Circle, the pandemic put on hold expansion plans, moved classes outside onto a D.C. school’s soccer field, and
There won’t be a coronavirus vaccine ready before Election Day, despite President Donald Trump’s repeated promises and vaccine makers’ breakneck speed.
The president’s last best hope for meeting that deadline fizzled Friday as Pfizer announced that it would not seek emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration before the third week of November. The company is the only frontrunner in the vaccine race that has said it could have proof its vaccine works by Nov. 3.
For Trump, the failure to meet that deadline is a self-inflicted defeat. The Election Day target was always an artificial one, created by a president who for months has touted it on the campaign trail and press briefing stage. When his administration’s top scientists disputed the timeline, Trump accused them of slowing down progress for political reasons.
In the meantime, dozens of companies, universities and government agencies are working at record speed — cutting years off the normal development process to deliver a vaccine for the virus that has killed nearly 220,000 people in the U.S. and 1 million worldwide. That historic push is still on track to deliver a vaccine by early 2021, roughly a year after the virus first emerged.
“It was never going to happen. It was utterly unrealistic,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the WHO Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University. “Vaccines follow a timeline of good science, they don’t follow a timeline of electoral politics.”
Since the beginning of the pandemic, federal health officials including infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, CDC Director Robert Redfield and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar have said that a vaccine is most likely by the end of the year or early 2021.
But those projections have always been riddled with caveats. Enrollment in clinical trials to test the shots’ safety and efficacy does not always proceed as quickly as companies would like. Too few people in those trials may be exposed to the virus, delaying the collection of crucial data. And the studies may find that a vaccine is dangerous — or simply doesn’t work.
“Nature is hard. You can’t use your political rhetoric to bamboozle nature,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania and an adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. Emanuel penned a letter to Pfizer this month with dozens of scientists raising concerns about speeding the vaccine before safety data was clear.
Two manufacturers, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, recently paused clinical trials after each reported a serious illness in their studies. While J&J only halted the trials this week, AstraZeneca still has not resumed U.S. studies that stopped in September.
Executives at Moderna, another frontrunner whose vaccine relies on a still-unproven technology, has said it will not be ready to submit an emergency authorization application to FDA until late November. Pfizer, meanwhile, continues to expand its trial — first to enroll thousands more adults, and most recently to
Executives at Moderna, another frontrunner whose vaccine relies on a still-unproven technology, has said it will not be ready to submit an emergency authorization application to FDA until late November. Pfizer, meanwhile, continues to expand its trial — first to enroll thousands more adults, and most recently to include teens. Those moves could further push back its timeline, because the FDA expects companies applying for emergency authorization to submit two months of data on at least half of trial participants.
“Just because we are waiting until the end of the year instead of October — just to keep things in perspective, this is still a land speed record for vaccines,” said Peter Hotez, a virologist and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. Hotez has worked on several shots including a potential SARS vaccine, each of which has taken years if not decades of work to develop and test.
But the rapid pace of coronavirus shot development thus far hasn’t satisfied Trump, whose administration has put the quest for a vaccine at the center of its pandemic response efforts.
“We’ll have the vaccine soon, maybe before a special date. You know what date I’m talking about,” he said in an early September news conference. When FDA pushed to beef up its standards for authorizing emergency use of coronavirus vaccines, he called it “a political move more than anything else.”
The agency revised its guidance to make sure drug makers submitted enough data to reveal any side effects from their shots, Hotez said. It “wasn’t done to punish the president, it was done to protect the public to ensure that we have vaccines that work and are safe,” he said.
As vaccine timelines turned hazy, Trump turned his attentions to drugs known as monoclonal anitbodies. He declared an experimental antibody by drug a “cure” earlier this month, after receiving the treatment during his hospitalization for Covid-19. The president has repeatedly promised the cocktails will soon be available to every American who needs them.
Yet within a week of his initial promise, Eli Lilly — the other company with an antibody drug in late-stage clinical trials — paused its studies over safety concerns.
The bumps on the road to a vaccine or an antibody drug leave health officials with tools that Trump and other White House officials have long questioned: mask-wearing, social distancing and widespread testing.
Trump’s antibody rhetoric “was a pivot when it was clear that the vaccines weren’t going to fill his timeline. And its quite clear that the antibodies aren’t going to fill his timeline either,” said Emanuel.
But the longer timeline for vaccines could help public confidence in an eventual shot. Most registered voters want manufacturers to fully test vaccines even if it delays delivering the shots to Americans, according to a recent POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
Nearly half of those voters, across party affiliations, said they believe Trump is pressuring FDA to deliver shots sooner and 35 percent believe it will